So are the playoffs the fairest system? How can a team which finishes sixth win promotion over the three teams who finished ahead of them? After all, the Championship is a league, and therefore performance over a certain amount of games is what should decide the final standings. Many people claim that the playoffs reward the teams who finish sixth, or, in League 2, seventh, as they are the team with momentum. The question cannot be fully answered with this perception. To fully answer the question of whether the playoffs are a fair system, a study must be taken of previous finals, to determine whether the sixth placed team really does take an advantage, or whether the best team wins out.
The playoffs started in 1987, with the three teams in Divisions 1, 2 and 3 and the 21st placed team in the league above. 1989 saw this changed so that the playoffs simply consisted of four teams from that league, with the winners gaining promotion to the league above. This study will take in all the seasons from 1989 to 2009, all three English divisions which include promotion playoffs. As there are different placed teams in the playoffs for different years and different leagues, the top placed team has been given the number 4, the second placed team the number 3, down to the bottom placed team having the number 1. For the sake of continuity, the leagues will be referred to by the current names, the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2. Through analysing the results, it can be determined whether the top placed team in the playoffs goes on to win promotion as much as their league placing shows they should, or whether the momentum team, most often in sixth, upsets the odds and takes the promotion place.
In the Championship, the top placed team had made the playoff final 12 times in 21 finals, 57.14% of the time. The top placed team won that final 7 times, 33.3% of the overall finals. The second placed team made the final on 10 occasions, 47.62% of the time, and they won 4 of those finals, with 4 of their 6 losses coming to the top placed team. The third placed team made the final 11 times, 52.38% of the time, winning 5 of those finals, with their six losses being split evenly between the top and bottom placed teams. The bottom placed team made the final 9 times, 42.86% of the overall finals, and they were victorious five times. In the Championship there has therefore been a relatively even split of teams making the final, with the difference in finals between the top and bottom ranked teams just 3 appearances, and the difference in wins just two, with both the bottom and second-bottom ranked teams winning one more final than the second ranked team. In the Championship, the top placed teams do not see a significantly greater record than the bottom placed teams, with the second placed team having the worst record. It must be noted however that the semis finals pit the top placed team against the bottom placed team, and that when the second placed team makes a final, it is often against the top placed team, a factor that must be taken into account.
League 1 sees both of the top two placed team having made 12 of 21 finals, equal to the top placed team in the Championship. The third and fourth placed teams have made 9 finals each, equal to the bottom placed team in the Championship. The top placed team has won 7 of their 12 finals, with four of their five losses coming to the second placed team. That team has won just four of their final appearances, all of them coming against the top placed team, with their losses shared evenly between the top and bottom placed teams. The third ranked team managed to win 3 of their 9 finals, and the bottom placed team won 7 of their 9, 4 of which were against the second placed team. Here, the top ranked teams seem to make the final on more occasions, but the bottom placed team tends to win if they get there- supporting the idea that momentum is the key in playoffs.
League 2 shows the picture as one of the top ranked teams dominating. The top team has made 15 of 21 finals, a staggering 71.43%, winning 11 of them, showing that the top ranked team is dominant in these playoffs. The second placed team has made 13 finals, but has won just 5, with 7 of their 8 losses coming against the top ranked team. The third placed team has made 9 finals, winning 4, and the bottom placed team has made 5, winning just 1. This shows the expected picture, of the best team, on league standings, most often winning promotion. The 'momentum' team, finishing in the last playoff place, has won just 1 of the 21 playoff finals since 1989.
The overall picture shows the top placed team making 61.90% of finals, the second placed team making 55.56%, the third placed team 46.03% and the bottom placed team 36.51%. Thus the top placed team, and the one which has performed the best in the league that season, makes over half of the finals, almost two thirds, and the bottom placed team only just more than a third. The top placed team has won 39.68% of the finals, the second placed team 20.63%, the third placed team 19.05% and the bottom placed team also 20.63%, winning exactly the same number as the second placed team. With the top placed team so far in front, almost double the wins of all the other teams, this shows clearly that the best team most often does win. The teams that come behind them are generally even in terms of wins. The second and third placed team's wins are down on their final appearances as they either play the top team or the bottom team. The bottom team most often has the momentum, as well as the confidence generated from beating the top team, thus giving them a much greater proportion of wins to finals.
With these statistics, it can be clearly seen that the playoff system is not as biased towards the bottom placed team as many people have argued. They tend to have a better winning percentage than the two teams directly above them, but the top team wins a much greater proportion of the finals than any of the others. The Championship statistics show that the four teams tend to be relatively equal in terms of promotion wins, but this most likely relates to the prize at the end of the rainbow: promotion to the Premier League, which brings a much greater motivation than promotion to the Championship or League 1. Overall, the playoffs do seem a fair system, adding excitement to a league, as well as seeing the best team most often winning promotion.
No comments:
Post a Comment