Last year's tournament saw some shocks, none greater than Nadal's forth round loss to Robin Soderling, who defeated Nadal in just four sets. Soderling went on to make the final, where he was humbled by the great Federer in three. Federer was able to complete the set of Grand Slams with his victory, which was aided by a great comeback from two sets to one down against Juan Martin Del Potro in the semi final. Number four seed last year, Djokovic, was defeated in just the third round, by the German Phillip Kohlschreiber in three sets too, with third seed Andy Murray departing the tournament in the quarter finals against Chilean Fernando Gonzalez.
This year looks like Nadal should bounce back to win his fifth French Open, with Federer clearly his inferior on clay, and Djokovic and Murray not being the best on that surface, and also not being in the best of form. The one man who looked like he could have mounted a big challenge to the top two was Del Potro, but the reigning U. S. Open champion is out with a serious injury. Nadal can be had a 2/5 for the tournament, with Federer at 9/2. The third favorite, Djokovic can be had at 20/1. These odds show how much this tournament is considered to be a two horse race. But is it really that clear cut?
The top quarter of the draw plays host to Mr. Federer, who has a relatively easy route through the first three rounds, likely to face Janko Tipsarevic in the second and Feliciano Lopez in the third. The forth round would see him face Stanislas Wawrinka, who, twelve months ago, would have been seen as a serious challenge for Federer, but he is in little discernible form, and cannot be seen as a viable challenge. He would then advance into the quarter final, and his opponent is difficult to determine. Benneteau versus Gulbis looks to be the tie of the first round in that quarter, and the winner of that match should make it through to the third round to face Marin Cilic. Both Benneteau and Gulbis have defeated Rodger Federer before, Gulbis very recently. Gulbis is seen by some as the fourth favorite for this tournament, but I see Marin Cilic defeating him in the third round and going on to face fifth seed Robin Soderling in the fourth. While Cilic has been rising through the ranks of late, and Soderling has not been in the greatest form of his life, this one goes to Soderling, partly due to his success last year, but he falls to Federer in the semi finals. Federer has a few obstacles on his way to the semi final, but not a great many, and he should come through unscathed.
The second quarter is an interesting one, although it is relatively weak. The seed is Andy Murray, but the Scot is in dreadful form, and he has a very difficult first round tie against Richard Gasquet, who he last faced in a dramatic five set encounter at Wimbledon. Gasquet won the last ATP tournament before the French Open, and, while this will give him confience, it will also tire him, and with the match being just two days after Gasquet's win, Murray's superior fitness should see him through what is bound to be a long match. Should Murray win this match, he could well go all the way to the semi final. He would then face Chela, Baghdatis and Isner, all challenging opponents, but all opponent who Murray would expect to defeat. His likely quarter final opponent, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, should also have no problem making the quarter final, seeing an easy route through to face Murray. While it is a shock that I am predicting Murray to win this quarter, that is exactly what I am doing, which would see him face Federer in the semi final.
The third quarter hosts Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick, the third and sixth seeds, who would be expected to meet in the quarter final. However, this quarter is much more open than it looks. Roddick and Djokovic should both make it to the forth round, but here they would run into David Ferrer and Sam Querrey respectively. Querrey would face a tough third round match against Juan Carlos Ferrero, but if he can come through that he has a good chance to beat Djokovic, who comes into the tournament without a great deal of form. Ferrer is always a dangerous opponent, once fifth in the world he has recently been regaining form, and Andy Roddick is getting on in years. I see Ferrer and Querry going all the way to the quarter final here, with Querrey taking the semi final place in what would be a very close match.
The final quarter contains the tournament favorite Rafael Nadal. The right to face Nadal in the quarter final should be hotly contested, as Nadal's place is all but confirmed. He should not face any serious threats before he makes the quarter final, and even then he will not come up against much of a challenge. The favorite to face him would be Fernando Verdasco, although I have him falling to Phillip Kohlschreiber in the third, the in form German being the man who goes on to face Nadal. Kohlschreiber would have a tough path to the quarter final, facing Verdasco in the third round and then Fernando Gonzalez, semi-finalist last time round, in the fourth. Kohlschreiber will take the quarter final place, but there is little chance that he takes the semis place, as Nadal will march into the semis, probably without dropping a set.
The semis then line up as Rodger Federer versus Andy Murray, a repeat of the Australian Open final, and Rafael Nadal versus Sam Querrey. Both look to be one-sided affairs, as Murray seems unable to defeat Federer in a Slam. The surface will not help Murray, nor will it help Querrey, as Maericans traditionally struggle on clay. So Federer and Nadal should face little opposition as they march to the final, another meeting of tennis' two powerhouses, and another title for Nadal. Their last clay court meeting saw Nadal win in straight sets, and I don't see Federer having the game on Nadal's own surface to beat the Spaniard. Was this any other surface, Federer would be the man to beat, but Roland Garros is Nadal's turf, and there is no way the he will be beaten.
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